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How Long After HailDo Roof Permits Rise?

Best Roofers Ranked lined up public hail reports with city re-roof permits. 73 of 107 hail days in the measured files were followed by a spike week of permits within 12 weeks. This is timing from public records, not a forecast.

Hail reports are public, and so are city re-roof permits. Lining the two files up shows how many days passed before permits first ran well above a normal week. This is timing from public records, not a forecast.

Data last changed October 17, 2026. Storm reports are preliminary until the National Weather Service finishes its review. Computed by scripts/permit-hail-lag.mjs in the site repository.

How Is The Lag Measured?

Each hail day comes from the Storm Prediction Center preliminary hail reports of 1 inch or larger in the metro's counties, one file per metro. Each permit comes from the city's open re-roof permit file. Weeks run Monday through Sunday. The window starts at the first Monday on or after the storm file's first date and ends with the last full week inside both files. The weekly median counts every week in that window, including empty weeks. A spike week has more than 2 times that median. For each hail day the lag is the number of days from the hail day to the Monday of the first spike week that starts after it, searched across the next 12 weeks.

One spike week can serve several hail days, so the lags are not separate observations. A hail day with fewer than 12 full weeks of permit data after it and no spike yet is marked not yet observable.

What Do The Permit Files Show For Each City?

San Antonio

Permit file: City of San Antonio, Development Services Department, dataset https://data.sanantonio.gov/dataset/building-permits, 29,235 re-roof rows, as of 2026-09-25. The file used is /data/san-antonio-re-roof-permits.csv, pulled 2026-10-02, with 29,235 rows. 15,423 rows fall inside the window and 0 rows have no date. Date field: issued date.

Storm file: NOAA Storm Prediction Center, preliminary local storm reports (hail), https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/, file built 2026-10-17, hail of 1 inch or larger, 24 days from 2024-01-01 to 2026-10-16.

Window: 142 weeks, 2024-01-01 to the week of 2026-09-14. Weekly median 96.5, so a spike week has more than 193 permits. 14 spike weeks; 12 had a hail day in the 12 weeks before them and 2 did not. Of 24 hail days, 7 had a spike week, with a median lag of 10 days (range 6 to 29); 16 had none within 12 weeks and 1 is not yet observable.

Stored permit window: City of San Antonio, Development Services Department records from 2020-11-30 to 2026-09-25, 29,235 re-roof rows. The lag window above is the stretch the permit file and the storm file share, so it can start later than the earliest stored permit.

County hail counts: the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Storm Events Database file for 8 counties holds 424 hail events from 2020 through May 26, 2026, built October 2, 2026. The largest stone in that file is 6.42 inches in Medina County on Apr 28, 2021. The file carries a 2026 row and NCEI keeps the current year open, so its 2026 counts are preliminary. It records every hail event it logged, a wider set than the 1 inch or larger Storm Prediction Center days in the table below, so the two counts do not match.

NCEI hail reports in the metro counties by year:

  • 2020: 55 reports
  • 2021: 90 reports
  • 2022: 55 reports
  • 2023: 81 reports
  • 2024: 68 reports
  • 2025: 67 reports
  • 2026: 8 reports
Hail dayLargest stone (inches)ReportsFirst spike week startsPermits that weekLag (days)
Jan 23, 202423NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Feb 10, 202411NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 21, 20242.57NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Apr 1, 20241.7511NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Apr 9, 20241.59NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Apr 20, 2024213NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Apr 28, 202413NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
May 13, 20241.55NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
May 16, 20241.752NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
May 28, 20242.51NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
May 31, 202411NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 23, 202516Apr 21, 202520629
Mar 31, 2025215Apr 21, 202520621
Apr 30, 202534May 12, 202523912
May 2, 20251.510May 12, 202523910
May 5, 202511May 12, 20252397
May 6, 202512May 12, 20252396
May 26, 2025312Jun 2, 20252017
Oct 24, 202511NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Nov 1, 202511NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 7, 20261.52NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 10, 20262.755NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
May 26, 202621NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Sep 11, 20262.55NoneNoneNot yet observable

Dallas-Fort Worth

Permit file: City of Dallas, Building Permits dataset (Dallas Open Data) (Dallas), dataset https://www.dallasopendata.com/Services/Building-Permits/e7gq-4sah, 11,247 re-roof rows, as of 2020-08-28; City of Fort Worth, Development Permits (open data) (Fort Worth), dataset https://services5.arcgis.com/3ddLCBXe1bRt7mzj/arcgis/rest/services/CFW_Open_Data_Development_Permits_View/FeatureServer/0, 1,329 re-roof rows, as of 2026-10-09. The file used is /data/dallas-fort-worth-re-roof-permits.csv, pulled 2026-10-09, with 12,576 rows. 1,239 rows fall inside the window and 0 rows have no date. Date field: filed date. Rows in the window by jurisdiction: Fort Worth 1,239.

Storm file: NOAA Storm Prediction Center, preliminary local storm reports (hail), https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/, file built 2026-10-17, hail of 1 inch or larger, 56 days from 2024-01-01 to 2026-10-16.

Window: 144 weeks, 2024-01-01 to the week of 2026-09-28. Weekly median 7, so a spike week has more than 14 permits. 10 spike weeks; 10 had a hail day in the 12 weeks before them and 0 did not. Of 56 hail days, 39 had a spike week, with a median lag of 19 days (range 2 to 83); 13 had none within 12 weeks and 4 are not yet observable.

Stored permit window: City of Dallas, Building Permits dataset (Dallas Open Data) (Dallas) records from 2018-01-02 to 2020-08-28, 11,247 re-roof rows; City of Fort Worth, Development Permits (open data) (Fort Worth) records from 2023-10-09 to 2026-10-09, 1,329 re-roof rows. The lag window above is the stretch the permit file and the storm file share, so it can start later than the earliest stored permit.

County hail counts: the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Storm Events Database file for 9 counties holds 2,740 hail events from 2010 through June 6, 2026, built October 9, 2026. The largest stone in that file is 5.9 inches in Denton County on Jun 15, 2023. The file carries a 2026 row and NCEI keeps the current year open, so its 2026 counts are preliminary. It records every hail event it logged, a wider set than the 1 inch or larger Storm Prediction Center days in the table below, so the two counts do not match.

NCEI hail reports in the metro counties by year:

  • 2010: 49 reports
  • 2011: 340 reports
  • 2012: 142 reports
  • 2013: 55 reports
  • 2014: 122 reports
  • 2015: 56 reports
  • 2016: 145 reports
  • 2017: 142 reports
  • 2018: 125 reports
  • 2019: 141 reports
  • 2020: 113 reports
  • 2021: 212 reports
  • 2022: 111 reports
  • 2023: 332 reports
  • 2024: 295 reports
  • 2025: 216 reports
  • 2026: 144 reports
Hail dayLargest stone (inches)ReportsFirst spike week startsPermits that weekLag (days)
Mar 14, 2024321Apr 29, 20242946
Mar 21, 202411Apr 29, 20242939
Mar 27, 202411Apr 29, 20242933
Apr 1, 2024313Apr 29, 20242928
Apr 8, 20241.7517Apr 29, 20242921
Apr 19, 202411Apr 29, 20242910
Apr 26, 20241.755Apr 29, 2024293
May 8, 20241.251May 13, 2024415
May 9, 202434May 13, 2024414
May 22, 20241.7527Jun 10, 20246219
May 24, 20241.7511Jun 10, 20246217
May 25, 202411Jun 10, 20246216
May 27, 20243.2591Jun 10, 20246214
May 28, 202411Jun 10, 20246213
May 30, 202425Jun 10, 20246211
Jun 2, 20241.759Jun 10, 2024628
Sep 24, 202429NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Nov 4, 20241.752NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Nov 7, 20241.251NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 3, 202516NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 7, 20251.7527NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 8, 20251.757NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 25, 20252.2528NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 29, 20251.59NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Mar 30, 20251.758NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Apr 14, 202512NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Apr 19, 20251.752NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Apr 22, 202511Jul 14, 20251983
May 6, 20251.513Jul 14, 20251969
May 16, 20252.7518Jul 14, 20251959
May 18, 202522Jul 14, 20251957
May 26, 20251.253Jul 14, 20251949
Jun 1, 2025376Jul 14, 20251943
Jun 3, 202511Jul 14, 20251941
Jun 8, 202514Jul 14, 20251936
Aug 3, 202511NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Sep 5, 20251.254NoneNoneNone within 12 weeks
Sep 21, 202528Dec 8, 20251578
Nov 23, 20251.53Dec 8, 20251515
Mar 4, 20261.54Mar 16, 20262112
Mar 10, 202611Mar 16, 2026216
Apr 25, 2026348Jun 8, 20262044
Apr 27, 2026223Jun 8, 20262042
Apr 28, 20264.530Jun 8, 20262041
Apr 29, 20262.52Jun 8, 20262040
May 22, 20261.55Jun 8, 20262017
May 24, 202611Jun 8, 20262015
May 25, 202612Jun 8, 20262014
May 28, 20261.254Jun 8, 20262011
Jun 2, 202627Jun 8, 2026206
Jun 6, 20261.253Jun 8, 2026202
Jul 6, 20261.51Aug 10, 20261535
Aug 26, 20261.52NoneNoneNot yet observable
Sep 11, 20261.756NoneNoneNot yet observable
Sep 21, 202611NoneNoneNot yet observable
Sep 27, 202611NoneNoneNot yet observable

Austin

Permit file: City of Austin, Issued Construction Permits (Austin Open Data) (Austin), dataset https://data.austintexas.gov/resource/3syk-w9eu, 1,632 re-roof rows, as of 2026-10-09. The file used is /data/austin-re-roof-permits.csv, pulled 2026-10-11, with 1,632 rows. 1,554 rows fall inside the window and 0 rows have no date. Date field: issued date. Rows in the window by jurisdiction: Austin 1,554.

Storm file: NOAA Storm Prediction Center, preliminary local storm reports (hail), https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/, file built 2026-10-13, hail of 1 inch or larger, 27 days from 2024-01-01 to 2026-10-12.

Window: 144 weeks, 2024-01-01 to the week of 2026-09-28. Weekly median 8, so a spike week has more than 16 permits. 26 spike weeks; 16 had a hail day in the 12 weeks before them and 10 did not. Of 27 hail days, 27 had a spike week, with a median lag of 27 days (range 3 to 83); 0 had none within 12 weeks and 0 are not yet observable.

Stored permit window: City of Austin, Issued Construction Permits (Austin Open Data) (Austin) records from 2023-10-11 to 2026-10-09, 1,632 re-roof rows. The lag window above is the stretch the permit file and the storm file share, so it can start later than the earliest stored permit.

County hail counts: the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Storm Events Database file for 3 counties holds 581 hail events from 2010 through June 2, 2026, built October 11, 2026. The largest stone in that file is 4 inches in Williamson County on Sep 24, 2023. The file carries a 2026 row and NCEI keeps the current year open, so its 2026 counts are preliminary. It records every hail event it logged, a wider set than the 1 inch or larger Storm Prediction Center days in the table below, so the two counts do not match.

NCEI hail reports in the metro counties by year:

  • 2010: 5 reports
  • 2011: 32 reports
  • 2012: 15 reports
  • 2013: 36 reports
  • 2014: 45 reports
  • 2015: 15 reports
  • 2016: 10 reports
  • 2017: 31 reports
  • 2018: 9 reports
  • 2019: 18 reports
  • 2020: 27 reports
  • 2021: 40 reports
  • 2022: 15 reports
  • 2023: 112 reports
  • 2024: 59 reports
  • 2025: 97 reports
  • 2026: 15 reports
Hail dayLargest stone (inches)ReportsFirst spike week startsPermits that weekLag (days)
Feb 10, 202411Mar 11, 20242330
Mar 27, 202411May 20, 20241754
Apr 1, 20241.56May 20, 20241749
Apr 9, 20242.533May 20, 20241741
Apr 20, 202411May 20, 20241730
May 9, 2024316May 20, 20241711
May 30, 202446Jun 10, 20247811
Dec 24, 20241.251Mar 17, 20253283
Feb 11, 202512Mar 17, 20253234
Mar 14, 202511Mar 17, 2025323
Mar 23, 20251.259Apr 7, 20252115
Mar 30, 202512Apr 7, 2025218
Apr 22, 20252.515Apr 28, 2025236
Apr 30, 20252.57May 12, 20254112
May 1, 202511May 12, 20254111
May 5, 20251.252May 12, 2025417
May 6, 20251.252May 12, 2025416
May 16, 2025318Aug 4, 20252880
May 22, 20252.7513Aug 4, 20252874
May 28, 2025212Aug 4, 20252868
Apr 18, 202612Apr 27, 2026289
Apr 30, 202612Jun 15, 20263946
May 9, 202611Jun 15, 20263937
May 10, 202611Jun 15, 20263936
May 19, 202613Jun 15, 20263927
May 26, 202611Jun 15, 20263920
Jun 2, 202611Jun 15, 20263913

Listed Without A Figure

  • Houston: No permit file with dates and roof-type fields: the city publishes no contractor-level roofing permit dataset that this site could load.

What Does The Largest-Stone Column Measure?

The largest-stone column in each city table is the biggest report in that metro's stored storm file for the date. A day enters the file when a report of 1 inch or larger comes from a county in the metro area, so the column starts at a reporting floor and rises from there. One inch is a reporting line in the storm file, and it is not a damage line for a roof.

The National Weather Service hail size table turns a measured diameter into a familiar object, from a pea at a quarter inch to a grapefruit at four and a half inches, and it tells spotters to freeze the stone, measure it and notify the service (read October 25, 2026). A report at the floor therefore says a stone reached that size somewhere in the metro's counties. That is the only claim this page makes about it, and the roof itself has not been inspected.

For an asphalt shingle, the impact rating a manufacturer prints comes from UL 2218. The scope published with that standard sets out what the test leaves out: weather, temperature, aging and similar effects (read October 25, 2026). The same scope notes that no direct correlation is currently established between a roof covering struck by a hailstone and one struck by a steel ball. Owens Corning publishes a list of products it classifies as UL 2218 Class 4 (read October 25, 2026). A footnote to that list says the results do not guarantee resistance to all weather conditions, and its shingle warranty excludes hail damage.

A dent is not the same question as a leak. The International Institute of Building Enclosure Consultants calls damage functional when it stops the assembly shedding water, and counts a hail dent cosmetic if it has not split, fractured or punctured the metal or disengaged a seam (read November 1, 2026). An ASTM paper on simulated hail divots in coated steel panels opens with the point that cosmetic damage from hail is often excluded from coverage (read October 25, 2026). The largest stone in a city table is an input to the timing question, and it is not a finding about any roof.

How Big Did The Stones Get In Each Measured City?

The counts below are read from the same stored storm rows the lag tables above use, inside each city's measured window. The first column counts every hail day in that window, the second counts the days whose largest stone reached 1.75 inches, and the third is the biggest stone in the window.

Metro areaHail days in the measured windowDays with a stone of 1.75 inches or largerLargest stone (inches)
San Antonio24123
Dallas-Fort Worth56274.5
Austin2784

Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary local storm reports, read from each metro's stored file in this repository. The files were built between October 13, 2026 andOctober 17, 2026. The reports are preliminary, because the service publishes a report before its review and a later review can change a size or a location. The 1.75 inch line is the one the stored hail-days file already carries, so the bands here match the site's other hail pages.

What Can You Do While The Permit Week Is Still Ahead?

A spike week is a week in a city file, and the wait before it is time a homeowner can use. The National Roofing Contractors Association tells homeowners to inspect only from ground level, to have every roof a storm crossed looked at regardless of how it appears, and to treat an unusually low bid with caution (read October 25, 2026).

The Insurance Information Institute puts the first steps in a different order from a roofer's: contact your agent or insurance company, make temporary repairs to protect the property, and save the receipts. It also warns about a contractor who asks for a large amount of money up front (read October 25, 2026).

Every state insurance department takes complaints about an insurer, and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners publishes the directory (read October 25, 2026). In Texas, the Attorney General's consumer protection division describes its work as accepting complaints, filing civil cases in the public interest and educating Texans on how to spot and avoid possible scams (read October 26, 2026). Those routes exist for a dispute about a claim or a contractor, and they are separate from the permit file a city publishes.

None of these steps changes the permit record. They protect the claim and the property while the city file, which is the timing record this page measures, is still weeks away from showing a spike week.

What Do These Numbers Not Say?

A permit is a filed or issued record. It does not say hail caused the job, and a roofer can start work on a damaged roof before or after the permit date. Cities publish only their own jurisdiction, so a metro's suburbs are outside these counts. The storm files are preliminary reports of hail size in the metro's counties, not a map of which roofs were hit. Where a permit file records the date an application was filed instead of the date a permit was issued, the lag runs from filing.

What Else Do Homeowners Ask About Permits And Hail?

How long after a hailstorm do roofing permits go up?
In the files measured here, where a spike week followed a hail day it started between 2 and 83 days later, and the middle of each city's lags is shown in its table. Many hail days were followed by no spike week at all inside 12 weeks. The data shows timing, and it does not show that a given storm caused a given permit.
What counts as a spike in roofing permits?
A week with more than 2 times the city's median weekly count of re-roof permits over the same window. The median is taken across every week in the window, weeks with no permits included.
Why does a city show no figure?
A city is listed without a figure when it has no open permit file with an issue or filing date and a roof-type filter. The reason is printed beside its name instead of an estimate.
Does a permit week prove hail damage?
No. Permits also follow seasons, deadlines and demand with no storm behind them. The tables show how many spike weeks had a hail day in the weeks before them and how many did not.

Which Guides Should I Read Next?

Where Can I Read More Or Run The Numbers?

Where Do These Facts Come From?

  1. NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Storm reports. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/. Fetched 10 October 2026. Daily reports of hail, wind and tornadoes. Same-day reports are preliminary until NCEI publishes its reviewed record.
  2. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events database (bulk files). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/. Fetched 10 October 2026. The reviewed record, published with a lag of weeks to months.
  3. National Weather Service, Estimating hail size (Boise, Idaho, forecast office). https://www.weather.gov/boi/hailsize. Fetched 25 October 2026. The table turns a hail diameter in inches into a familiar object, from a quarter inch pea to a four and a half inch grapefruit, and the page tells spotters to freeze it, measure it and notify the NWS.
  4. UL Standards & Engagement, UL 2218, Impact resistance of prepared roof covering materials (product page with the standard scope). https://shopulstandards.com/ProductDetail.aspx?productId=UL2218. Fetched 25 October 2026. The scope states that the test does not evaluate weathering, temperature, aging or similar effects, and that no direct correlation between the performance of a roof covering hit by hailstones and by steel balls is currently established.
  5. Owens Corning, Impact resistance shingles, class rating. https://www.owenscorning.com/en-us/roofing/shingle-class-rating. Fetched 25 October 2026. The page lists the products it classifies as UL 2218 Class 4 and footnotes the list to say the test results do not guarantee the shingle will resist all weather conditions, and that hail damage is specifically excluded from coverage under the shingle warranty.
  6. International Institute of Building Enclosure Consultants, Fall Exclusive: A Deep Dive into Hail-Caused Dents (a study of corrosion resistance within dents in Galvalume-coated steel roof panels). https://iibec.org/publication-post/fall-exclusive-a-deep-dive-into-hail-caused-dents-a-study-of-corrosion-resistance-within-dents-in-galvalume-coated-steel-roof-panels/. Fetched 1 November 2026. Defines functional damage as damage, typically dents or deformations, that reduces the roof assembly’s ability to shed water, and says hail-caused dents that have not split, fractured or punctured the metal, or otherwise compromised its ability to resist moisture intrusion such as by disengaging a seam, are cosmetic.
  7. ASTM International, New research on hail damage to Al-Zn alloy coated steel roofing (STP1650). https://store.astm.org/stp165020220099.html. Fetched 25 October 2026. The abstract describes two Metal Building Manufacturers Association projects on simulated hail divots in coated steel panels, and opens with the point that cosmetic damage due to hail is often excluded from coverage.
  8. National Roofing Contractors Association, Storm damage repair caution for homeowners and business owners (July 27, 2022). https://www.nrca.net/RoofingNews/nrca-urges-homeowners-and-business-owners-affected-by-severe-weather-to-use-caution-when-repairing-their-roof-systems.7-27-2022.10442/details/story. Fetched 25 October 2026. The release says a roof system inspection should be done only from ground level, that every roof a storm passed over should be inspected whatever it looks like, and that a consumer should keep a healthy skepticism about the lowest bid.
  9. Insurance Information Institute, Settling insurance claims after a disaster. https://www.iii.org/article/settling-insurance-claims-after-a-disaster. Fetched 25 October 2026. The first steps it lists are to contact your agent or company, make temporary repairs to protect the property and save the receipts. It also warns about contractors who ask for a large amount of money up front.
  10. National Association of Insurance Commissioners, State insurance departments. https://content.naic.org/state-insurance-departments. Fetched 25 October 2026. The directory of state insurance departments, each of which takes a complaint about an insurer. The page describes the association as supporting state insurance commissioners who regulate the industry.
  11. Texas Attorney General, Consumer Protection. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/consumer-protection. Fetched 26 October 2026. The division describes its work as accepting complaints, filing civil cases in the public interest and educating Texans on how to spot and avoid possible scams.
  12. Best Roofers Ranked methodology. How the site researches and ranks roofers. Rates and counts on metro pages carry their own dated sources.

Sources: Where Was This Data Read?

This page cites 15 sources on 14 domains, each dated with the day we read it.